Zero Percent
The most consequential economic case of 2026 is before the Supreme Court, and Polymarket traders have already rendered their verdict: 0% probability that the Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs.
Not 5%. Not 1%. Zero.
The "Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?" market on Polymarket currently trades at 0¢ for Yes. The companion market — "Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?" — trades at 38¢ for Yes, a 38% probability that importers get their money back.
These are not small numbers. Trump's tariffs — 10% on all imports, up to 50% on specific countries — collect approximately $30 billion per month in revenue. Since the IEEPA tariffs were imposed, hundreds of billions have been collected. A refund order would be one of the largest court-mandated financial transfers in American history.
The Legal Background
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Trump exceeded his authority under IEEPA by imposing broad tariffs. The court found that IEEPA — designed for emergency sanctions against specific countries — was never intended to authorize across-the-board import duties.
The case went to the Supreme Court. Both Polymarket and Kalshi launched prediction markets on the outcome. Initially, odds of the Court siding with Trump hovered around 20-25%. After the Greenland tariff debacle in January 2026 — where Trump threatened 25% tariffs on European allies over Greenland, then reversed himself — odds crashed to near zero.
The market's reasoning: a Court that was already skeptical of executive overreach on trade won't be more sympathetic after the President used tariffs as a tool for territorial acquisition.
What 0% Actually Means
A 0% price on Polymarket doesn't mean impossibility — it means no one is willing to sell No contracts at less than $1.00. The effective floor is the minimum tick size.
But the signal is clear: not a single trader with meaningful capital believes the Supreme Court will uphold these tariffs. This is remarkable consensus for a market that usually prices even extreme outcomes at 2-5%.
The more nuanced question — and the tradeable one — is the 38% refund probability. Here's where the money is:
If SCOTUS strikes down tariffs but doesn't order refunds (62% probability):
- Tariffs end going forward
- Importers eat past losses
- Government keeps collected revenue
- Market impact: moderately positive for stocks, negative for government budget
If SCOTUS strikes down tariffs AND orders refunds (38% probability):
- Government must return hundreds of billions
- Walmart, Home Depot, Amazon get massive windfalls
- Government budget faces fiscal crisis
- Market impact: chaotic — retail stocks up, government bonds down, political turmoil
The Tariff Economy by the Numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total tariff rate range | 10% (baseline) to 50% (specific countries) |
| Monthly tariff revenue | ~$30B (Dec 2025 = $28B) |
| Estimated cumulative collection since IEEPA | $200B+ |
| GDP impact per affected country (Goldman est.) | -0.1% to -0.2% |
| Countries affected by Greenland tariffs (reversed) | 8 (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, UK, Netherlands, Finland) |
| Polymarket tariff-related active markets | 317 (116 "tariffs" + 201 "trade war") |
| Total tariff market volume | $9.7M+ |
317 active markets on tariffs and trade war — that's more markets than most stock exchanges list for a single sector. The prediction market ecosystem has built an entire derivatives complex around Trump's trade policy.
The Bitcoin Connection
CryptoSlate ran an analysis arguing that Bitcoin is wildly mispricing the Supreme Court ruling. Their thesis: if the Court strikes down tariffs (near certain per Polymarket), the removal of trade uncertainty should be bullish for risk assets including BTC. But BTC's current price doesn't fully reflect this catalyst.
If the refund scenario (38%) materializes, the fiscal shock could trigger a flight-to-safety rally in BTC — historically, Bitcoin has performed well during government fiscal crises.
Takeaways for Traders
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The tariff ruling is the biggest binary catalyst of Q2 2026. Every asset class — equities, bonds, crypto, commodities — will move on this decision. Use PredictScope's market data to monitor probability shifts in real time.
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The refund market at 38¢ is the active trade. The "SCOTUS rules against" question is settled (0%). The refund question is the live uncertainty with 62:38 odds.
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Cross-market correlation is high. When tariff odds shift, recession odds, Fed cut expectations, and BTC price markets all move. Track all four simultaneously.
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Test tariff-correlated strategies with Paper Trading first. The ruling date is unknown but expected soon. Use Paper Trading to simulate positions across multiple correlated markets before the decision drops.
Related Polymarket Markets
| Market | Current Price | Volume | Resolve Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCOTUS rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Yes 0¢ | — | — |
| Court forces Trump to refund tariffs? | Yes 38¢ | — | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? | — | — | — |
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes 35¢ | $13.2M | Dec 31, 2026 |
References
- "Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?" — Polymarket
- "Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?" — Polymarket
- "Tariff Tracker: 2026 Trump Tariffs & Trade War by the Numbers" — Tax Foundation
- "Kalshi, Polymarket Supreme Court tariff odds reset after Greenland tariffs" — TheStreet
- "Friday Supreme Court ruling could trigger instant tariff shock crash" — CryptoSlate
- "If the Supreme Court rules against Trump's tariffs it could threaten one third of his proposed military budget" — Yahoo Finance
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